The intraday price fluctuation range of SHFE tin narrows, with both bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war near 265,000 yuan/mt [SMM tin futures brief comment]

Daily Review of Tin Futures on July 8, 2025

On July 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract fluctuated downward within a narrow range. It opened at 263,520 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 266,090 yuan/mt and a low of 262,720 yuan/mt during the session, before closing at 265,480 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan or 0.08% from the previous trading day. Trading volume for the day reached 71,334 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,017 lots to 26,245 lots, indicating a rise in cautious sentiment among market participants. From a technical perspective, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has broken below the 20-day moving average support, reverting to the previous trading range (260,000-268,000 yuan/mt). The daily price fluctuation range narrowed, with longs and shorts battling it out near the 265,000 yuan/mt level, reflecting the market's conflicting mindset amid macro uncertainties and fundamental factors.

Overnight, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to decline, with the most-traded LME tin contract closing at $33,415/mt, up 0.47%. Compared to the highs in early July, LME tin prices have corrected by over 5%.

The Trump administration's tariff policy has become the biggest cloud hanging over the tin market. As of July 8, Trump has threatened the latest tariff rates on 14 countries, with major tin-producing nations all included in the high-tariff list: Indonesia faces a 32% tariff, Malaysia 25%, Thailand 36%, and Myanmar as high as 40%. These tariffs will take effect on August 1, with the White House only indicating that it is "open to delays" but not offering any substantive concessions.

The US dollar index has remained strong, exerting significant pressure on tin prices. The better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data (224,000 new jobs added in June) has cooled market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut, prompting a flight to safety into US dollar assets. The strengthening of the US dollar has put general pressure on base metals priced in US dollars, with LME tin prices bearing the brunt.

From a technical perspective, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has reverted to the center of the trading range (250,000-270,000 yuan/mt), lacking upward momentum for a short-term breakout. The support level for LME tin prices is at $32,500/mt, with resistance at $34,000/mt.